While most elections are fueled by the desire for a hopeful tomorrow, Ecuador's election day this year is enhanced by a chilling reality of political murders and mounting fears of unchecked criminal organizations vying for territorial control. The government is taking no chances, dispatching almost 100,000 troops to safeguard public order and ensure the safety of citizens.
Among the casualties of this blood-smeared political landscape was Fernando Villavicencio, a presidential contender known for his vocal stand against corruption. Villavicencio's murder brought the nation's deteriorating security situation under global scrutiny. Preliminary investigations hint at organized criminal entities being connected to his tragic demise.
Otto Sonnenholzner, another contender, revealed a shocking incident of a shooting near his family breakfast point on the eve of the elections. These incidents underscore the escalating violence that has dramatically reshaped Ecuador, once considered a near haven compared to its cocaine-producing neighbours, Colombia and Peru. Today, drug-fueled crime syndicates are tearing apart the social fabric, extorting businesses, manipulating prisons, and silencing opposition with murder.
This torrent of blood-curdling violence in the backdrop of ever-diminishing economic opportunities has sparked a mass exodus of Ecuadorians, some to the local neighbors, but many more venturing to the United States. An alarming portion of the workforce operates within an informal economy — devoid of safety nets and benefits to fall back on in trying times, a situation worsened by the Covid-19 onslaught. This discontent led to incumbent President Guillermo Lasso's plunging popularity and resulted in a snap general election scheduled for August 20, where Lasso is not a contender.
According to senior analyst Laura Lizarazo, the situation may act as a potent force in shaping voting patterns. Citizens feeling unheard, abandoned, and utterly hopeless in the face of crippling economy and increasing criminal activity may take their anger and fear to the ballot box.
The current front runner and only female contender Luisa González, representative of the Revolución Ciudadana (RC) party, garners support from the masses. The left-leaning party, founded by ex-president Rafael Correa, rides a wave of nostalgia for Correa's rule. Despite Correa's sentencing in absentia for bribery, his influence remains predominant. González aims to enhance public spending, fight poverty, reinforce the judicial system and tackle inequality. She also plans to deal with the root causes of violence gripping the nation through her policies.
Christian Zurita, another presidential aspirant known for his investigative journalism, proposes international loans to support social programs, tax reductions for employers who recruit young workers, and reinforcing the police to beat back crime.
Furthermore, Otto Sonnenholzner from the Alianza Actuemos party eyes the recovery of battered economy and restoring public security. His four-point plan aims to address rampant crimes. However, his popularity with the average voter remains tepid, despite favorable views from business and foreign investors.
While other candidates are proposing their solutions to Ecuador's complex problems, the looming crisis is rewriting the election narratives. The fear is palpable, and the stakes are high. The winner will only have a tenure until 2025, a brief amount of time, even for the most savvy politicians, to turn around Ecuador's deteriorating condition. As Lizarazo concisely puts it, the security environment is likely to remain a severe challenge, given the deep-rooted issues that cannot be resolved within an 18-month timeframe.
