In the stunning blue backdrop of the sky, a plume of white smoke puffs into existence, preceding the rapid descent of a plane, spiralling out of control with a wing clearly missing. The baffling scene is captured in a video published by Russian state media RIA Novosti, allegedly hours before a private plane, reportedly ferrying the renowned mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, plummets into a field north-west of Moscow.
Following comprehensive analysis of available flight data and videos, and consultations with leading aviation and explosive professionals, evidence suggests the occurrence of a catastrophic in-flight incident. This seeming calamity is, however, not captured in the available footage. The passenger list disclosed by the Russian civil aviation authority, Rosaviatsia, revealed the presence of Prigozhin along with Wagner's top commander, Dmitry Utkin. All the passengers and crew members numbered in the list were reportedly killed in the fatal incident, although confirmation of Prigozhin's death remains pending.
Subsequently, an official investigation into the accident’s circumstances and causes has been launched by Rosaviatsia. Another criminal probe is also under the workings of the Investigative Committee. The devastating crash arrives precisely two months after Prigozhin's brief and ill-fated attempt at rebellion against the authoritative command of Russian military, marking a stark discord with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Despite the uncertainty regarding the plane's crash, speculation runs rife. A possible on-board blast is mooted as a probable cause by a few officials, considering it premature to postulate distinct conclusions. Absence of clear evidence shrouds any involvement of the Kremlin or Russian security services in the crash. However, expert opinion seems to consider mechanical failure as an unlikely cause, taking into account the dramatic falling of the plane, the mid-air disintegration and the wide spread of the debris.
The private Hermosillo Embraer Legacy 600 (RA-02795) linked to Prigozhin, which was en route St. Petersburg from Moscow, displayed a sharp plunge on real-time aircraft data tracking site, Flightradar24. After maintaining a steady altitude of 28,000 feet while cruising at a speed of 590 mph, the aircraft experienced erratic jumps in altitude, at one point soaring up to 30,000 feet before precipitously dropping 8,000 feet inside 30 seconds. The final transmitted data showed the plane at an altitude of 19,725 feet.
Such drastic fluctuations in altitude are highly unusual, as noted by Steffan Watkins, an open-source research consultant specialized in tracking aircraft and ships. The consensus revolves around the occurrence of a forceful explosion, separating the plane's tail and wing, as described by Markus Schiller, a Europe-based missile expert with associations to NATO and European Union. Agreeing with the occurrence of a cataclysmic mid-air event, rocket expert Robert Schmucker, an advisor to NATO and the UN suggests that the plane was probably downed by an explosion than a mechanical failure.
Flaring up the mystery, the Embraer Legacy 600 that crashed has recorded only one accident ever since its inception two decades ago, and that too not involving a mechanical failure, reveals the International Aviation HQ. A point to note is that Brazil's aircraft manufacturer, Embraar, suspended its maintenance services complying with international sanctions against Russia.
Daniel Kwasi Adjekum, an aviation expert, proposes three feasible possibilities regarding the crash. He states them as an on-board explosive device, a missile or a mid-air collision. Due to the high degree of damage expected from a missile impact and the potential for air traffic control to detect a collision, unless it involved a drone, both scenarios are considered less likely than the first. He emphasizes conducting a thorough investigation to accurately determine the cause of the incident. To Adjekum, the "aircraft has suffered serious catastrophic in-flight break up.”
